By George Friedman

The Obama administration published a series of memoranda on torture issued under the
Bush administration. The memoranda, most of which dated from the period after 9/11,
authorized measures including depriving prisoners of solid food, having them stand
shackled and in uncomfortable positions, leaving them in cold cells with inadequate
clothing, slapping their heads and/or abdomens, and telling them that their families
might be harmed if they didn’t cooperate with their interrogators. 

On the scale of human cruelty, these actions do not rise anywhere near the top. At
the same time, anyone who thinks that being placed without food in a freezing cell
subject to random mild beatings — all while being told that your family might be
joining you — isn’t agonizing clearly lacks imagination. The treatment of detainees
could have been worse. It was terrible nonetheless. 

Torture and the Intelligence Gap
But torture is meant to be terrible, and we must judge the torturer in the context
of his own desperation. In the wake of 9/11, anyone who wasn’t terrified was not in
touch with reality. We know several people who now are quite blasé about 9/11.
Unfortunately for them, we knew them in the months after, and they were not nearly
as composed then as they are now. 

Sept. 11 was terrifying for one main reason: We had little idea about al Qaeda’s
capabilities. It was a very reasonable assumption that other al Qaeda cells were
operating in the United States and that any day might bring follow-on attacks.
(Especially given the group’s reputation for one-two attacks.) We still remember our
first flight after 9/11, looking at our fellow passengers, planning what we would do
if one of them moved. Every time a passenger visited the lavatory, one could see the
tensions soar. 

And while Sept. 11 was frightening enough, there were ample fears that al Qaeda had
secured a “suitcase bomb” and that a nuclear attack on a major U.S. city could come
at any moment. For individuals, such an attack was simply another possibility. We
remember staying at a hotel in Washington close to the White House and realizing
that we were at ground zero — and imagining what the next moment might be like. For
the government, however, the problem was having scraps of intelligence indicating
that al Qaeda might have a nuclear weapon, but not having any way of telling whether
those scraps had any value. The president and vice president accordingly were
continually kept at different locations, and not for any frivolous reason.

This lack of intelligence led directly to the most extreme fears, which in turn led
to extreme measures. Washington simply did not know very much about al Qaeda and its
capabilities and intentions in the United States. A lack of knowledge forces people
to think of worst-case scenarios. In the absence of intelligence to the contrary
after 9/11, the only reasonable assumption was that al Qaeda was planning more — and
perhaps worse — attacks. 

Collecting intelligence rapidly became the highest national priority. Given the
genuine and reasonable fears, no action in pursuit of intelligence was out of the
question, so long as it promised quick answers. This led to the authorization of
torture, among other things. Torture offered a rapid means to accumulate
intelligence, or at least — given the time lag on other means — it was something
that had to be tried. 

Torture and the Moral Question
And this raises the moral question. The United States is a moral project: its
Declaration of Independence and Constitution state that. The president takes an oath
to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution from all enemies foreign and
domestic. The Constitution does not speak to the question of torture of
non-citizens, but it implies an abhorrence of rights violations (at least for
citizens). But the Declaration of Independence contains the phrase, “a decent
respect for the opinions of mankind.” This indicates that world opinion matters. 

At the same time, the president is sworn to protect the Constitution. In practical
terms, this means protecting the physical security of the United States “against all
enemies, foreign and domestic.” Protecting the principles of the declaration and the
Constitution are meaningless without regime preservation and defending the nation. 

While this all makes for an interesting seminar in political philosophy, presidents
— and others who have taken the same oath — do not have the luxury of the
contemplative life. They must act on their oaths, and inaction is an action. Former
U.S. President George W. Bush knew that he did not know the threat, and that in
order to carry out his oath, he needed very rapidly to find out the threat. He could
not know that torture would work, but he clearly did not feel that he had the right
to avoid it. 

Consider this example. Assume you knew that a certain individual knew the location
of a nuclear device planted in an American city. The device would kill hundreds of
thousands of Americans, but the individual refused to divulge the information. Would
anyone who had sworn the oath have the right not to torture the individual? Torture
might or might not work, but either way, would it be moral to protect the
individual’s rights while allowing hundreds of thousands to die? It would seem that
in this case, torture is a moral imperative; the rights of the one with the
information cannot transcend the life of a city. 

Torture in the Real World
But here is the problem: You would not find yourself in this situation. Knowing a
bomb had been planted, knowing who knew that the bomb had been planted, and needing
only to apply torture to extract this information is not how the real world works.
Post-9/11, the United States knew much less about the extent of the threat from al
Qaeda. This hypothetical sort of torture was not the issue.

Discrete information was not needed, but situational awareness. The United States
did not know what it needed to know, it did not know who was of value and who
wasn’t, and it did not know how much time it had. Torture thus was not a precise
solution to a specific problem: It became an intelligence-gathering technique. The
nature of the problem the United States faced forced it into indiscriminate
intelligence gathering. When you don’t know what you need to know, you cast a wide
net. And when torture is included in the mix, it is cast wide as well. In such a
case, you know you will be following many false leads — and when you carry torture
with you, you will be torturing people with little to tell you. Moreover, torture
applied by anyone other than well-trained, experienced personnel (who are in
exceptionally short supply) will only compound these problems, and make the practice
less productive.

Defenders of torture frequently seem to believe that the person in custody is known
to have valuable information, and that this information must be forced out of him.
His possession of the information is proof of his guilt. The problem is that unless
you have excellent intelligence to begin with, you will become engaged in developing
baseline intelligence, and the person you are torturing may well know nothing at
all. Torture thus becomes not only a waste of time and a violation of decency, it
actually undermines good intelligence. After a while, scooping up suspects in a
dragnet and trying to extract intelligence becomes a substitute for competent
intelligence techniques — and can potentially blind the intelligence service. This
is especially true as people will tell you what they think you want to hear to make
torture stop.

Critics of torture, on the other hand, seem to assume the torture was brutality for
the sake of brutality instead of a desperate attempt to get some clarity on what
might well have been a catastrophic outcome. The critics also cannot know the extent
to which the use of torture actually prevented follow-on attacks. They assume that
to the extent that torture was useful, it was not essential; that there were other
ways to find out what was needed. In the long run, they might have been correct. But
neither they, nor anyone else, had the right to assume in late 2001 that there was a
long run. One of the things that wasn’t known was how much time there was.

The U.S. Intelligence Failure
The endless argument over torture, the posturing of both critics and defenders,
misses the crucial point. The United States turned to torture because it has
experienced a massive intelligence failure reaching back a decade. The U.S.
intelligence community simply failed to gather sufficient information on al Qaeda’s
intentions, capability, organization and personnel. The use of torture was not part
of a competent intelligence effort, but a response to a massive intelligence
failure. 

That failure was rooted in a range of miscalculations over time. There was the
public belief that the end of the Cold War meant the United States didn’t need a
major intelligence effort, a point made by the late Sen. Daniel Moynihan. There were
the intelligence people who regarded Afghanistan as old news. There was the
Torricelli amendment that made recruiting people with ties to terrorist groups
illegal without special approval. There were the Middle East experts who could not
understand that al Qaeda was fundamentally different from anything seen before. The
list of the guilty is endless, and ultimately includes the American people, who
always seem to believe that the view of the world as a dangerous place is something
made up by contractors and bureaucrats. 

Bush was handed an impossible situation on Sept. 11, after just nine months in
office. The country demanded protection, and given the intelligence shambles he
inherited, he reacted about as well or badly as anyone else might have in the
situation. He used the tools he had, and hoped they were good enough.

The problem with torture — as with other exceptional measures — is that it is
useful, at best, in extraordinary situations. The problem with all such techniques
in the hands of bureaucracies is that the extraordinary in due course becomes the
routine, and torture as a desperate stopgap measure becomes a routine part of the
intelligence interrogator’s tool kit. 

At a certain point, the emergency was over. U.S. intelligence had focused itself and
had developed an increasingly coherent picture of al Qaeda, with the aid of allied
Muslim intelligence agencies, and was able to start taking a toll on al Qaeda. The
war had become routinized, and extraordinary measures were no longer essential. But
the routinization of the extraordinary is the built-in danger of bureaucracy, and
what began as a response to unprecedented dangers became part of the process. Bush
had an opportunity to move beyond the emergency. He didn’t. 

If you know that an individual is loaded with information, torture can be a useful
tool. But if you have so much intelligence that you already know enough to identify
the individual is loaded with information, then you have come pretty close to
winning the intelligence war. That’s not when you use torture. That’s when you
simply point out to the prisoner that, “for you the war is over.” You lay out all
you already know and how much you know about him. That is as demoralizing as
freezing in a cell — and helps your interrogators keep their balance. 

U.S. President Barack Obama has handled this issue in the style to which we have
become accustomed, and which is as practical a solution as possible. He has
published the memos authorizing torture to make this entirely a Bush administration
problem while refusing to prosecute anyone associated with torture, keeping the
issue from becoming overly divisive. Good politics perhaps, but not something that
deals with the fundamental question.

The fundamental question remains unanswered, and may remain unanswered. When a
president takes an oath to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the
United States,” what are the limits on his obligation? We take the oath for granted.
But it should be considered carefully by anyone entering this debate, particularly
for presidents.


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